The October 1st suicide bombings on the popular Indonesian holiday island of Bali have dramatically dispelled theories that a crackdown by Indonesian police on the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and a split within the group has greatly reduced its effectiveness as a terrorist organization. In fact, the bombings should raise questions over the adequacy of the Indonesian and Australian security response.

Occurring almost three years to the day since a similar series of bomb blasts by the jihadist group killed 202 in two Balinese nightclubs popular with Westerners, the most recent attack occurred when three allegedly JI or JI splinter group operatives exploded three bombs strapped to their chests in restaurants frequented by tourists, killing 23 and wounding 125.

The strikes came one week after the head of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, Gareth Evans, downplayed the JI threat in a speech delivered at the University of NSW. Evans described them as having been “effectively smashed” by Indonesian police and intelligence forces with Australian support.

“As to the specific risk posed by terrorist groups operating in and from Indonesia…[the International] Crisis Group's perception is that the Jemaah Islamiyah regional division that covered Australia has been effectively smashed by Indonesian police and intelligence operations (well supported by Australian agencies), and that JI no longer poses a serious threat in Indonesia or elsewhere,” said Mr Evans.

Evans, who served as Australia’s Foreign Minister between the years 1988 - 1996, drew immediate criticism from other terrorism experts who warned of the continued JI menace despite seemingly successful Indonesian and Australian security operations.

Speaking on Australian radio program “The World Today” following the Evans speech and a few days before the Bali attack, Singapore-based terrorism expert Dr Rohan Gunaratna cautioned that,

“JI continues to pose a very credible threat to this region. It is the most active terrorist group in South East Asia today…[though] Australia and the Indonesian police have done a very good job in fighting JI, key operatives are free, and they are planning and preparing attacks,” he said.

The bombings were described by the head of the Australian Federal Police Mick Keelty as having come “as a complete surprise” despite warnings from the US embassy in Jakarta that its terror alert issued in May was still valid and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s advice in August of a probable attack in September or October.

“We know the terrorists cells are still active, they are still hiding, recruiting, networking, trying to find new funding and even planning ... for another strike,” Yudhoyono said in a statement to Associated Press (AP) on 29 August.

“Last night, I instructed the security minister, the head of the intelligence agency and the police chief to conduct more active operations into the detection and prevention (of the) act of terrorism that may happen this year ... in the months of September and October” he said.

The Australian Government has defended its lack of action despite having inside access to this apparently credible intelligence. Answering a journalist’s question as to why no specific travel warning was issued to Australian travelers to Bali - four of whom eventually died in the attacks - Australian Prime Minister John Howard stated that “no specific intelligence was received by us and to my knowledge by any of the other Western embassies in Jakarta” and that “beyond having specific intelligence that a particular attack is going to occur at a particular place there’s nothing more we can do.”

The Australian Government has instead concentrated on calling for banning of Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, a move that would prove politically difficult for President Yudhoyono in the strongly Muslim country and would have little positive effect according to some commentators as JI already exists as an underground organization.

“One must understand what's called JI is not really a formal organization with card-carrying members whom you could simply outlaw,” said Indonesian Foreign Affairs spokesman, Marty Natalegawa on the ABC’s 7.30 Report describing the inherent difficulties in implementing the move.

“What is important is basically to go after the root cause…and make sure that no individuals commit the kind of atrocity that they have with this latest Bali bombing. We need to concentrate and work from a base on the evidence that we get on the ground together with the Australian police, as we have just now, and we are confident, that like in the previous Bali bombing case, there will be success.”

The police investigation has centered around Malaysian JI members Azahari bin Husin and Noordin Muhammed Top, alleged masterminds of such previous attacks as the 2002 Bali bombings, the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta in 2003 and the 2004 attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta.

Dr Azahari is a British-trained geophysicist and known as the “Demolition Man” for his expertise in bombmaking. His colleague Noordin Muhammed Top is better known as the financier and top recruiter for JI terrorist operations. Both have managed to evade capture by the security forces and remain the principal focus for investigations into terrorist crimes in the country.

Though Azahari and Top are both believed to be senior members of the Jemaah Islamiyah organization, recent intelligence has suggested they are independently engaging a new generation of jihadists who are willing to act as suicide bombers. This has led to the speculation of a JI split. Spiritual leader and co-founder of the movement Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, currently serving a jail sentence in Indonesia, has added substance to this speculation by condemning the recent Bali bombings though supporting the use of suicide bombers in the Islamic jihad or “holy war.”

Australian Foreign Minister Downer is expected to leave for Jakarta next week for discussions with his counterpart Hassan Wirayuda concerning Australia’s request to ban Jemaah Islamiyah and to state his government’s opposition to any planned reduction in the sentence of Abu Bakar Ba’asyir which had been announced for the end of Ramadan. Ba’asyir has already had his 30-month sentence reduced by 4 ½ months in August as part of a general presidential amnesty.